Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,781$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,865.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59,865.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,787$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,562.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,771$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $292,931$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,602.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(281,602.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,942.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,942.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $246,493$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $256,619$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,576.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(240,576.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,409$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,669.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $77,834$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $243,344$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,697.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,984$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,079.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,079.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,919$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,001$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,474.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100,474.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,369.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,369.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,456$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $209,640$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(193,041.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,032$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(9.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,116.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,116.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,886$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,362$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,660.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(48,660.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,154$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,047.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,047.9\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,015$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,670$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(7.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,189.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,189.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(455 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,698.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,698.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $560$ on 2020-07-14