Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,781$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,865.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59,865.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,787$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,562.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,771$ on 2020-07-14

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $292,931$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,602.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(281,602.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,942.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,942.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $246,493$ on 2020-07-14

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $256,619$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,576.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(240,576.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,409$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,669.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77,834$ on 2020-07-14

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $243,344$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,697.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,984$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,079.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,079.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,919$ on 2020-07-14

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,001$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,474.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100,474.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,369.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,369.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,456$ on 2020-07-14

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $209,640$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(193,041.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,032$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(9.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,116.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,116.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,886$ on 2020-07-14

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,362$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,660.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(48,660.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,154$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,047.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,047.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,015$ on 2020-07-14

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,670$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,189.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,189.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(455 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,698.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,698.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $560$ on 2020-07-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Italy recovered 88%
Hungary recovered 73%
Belarus recovered 65%
Poland recovered 37%
Russia recovered 12%
Armenia recovered 8%

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,258$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,101.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,101.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $595$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(137 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{575.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(575.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $557$ on 2020-07-14

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,269$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,097.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.2)}}\) (asimptote \(66,097.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $474$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(53.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{537.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(537.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,996$ on 2020-07-14

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,457$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,656.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 71.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,656.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,588$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,533.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,533.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,113$ on 2020-07-14

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $738,787$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{740,570.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 71.8)}}\) (asimptote \(740,570.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,597$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(793 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,809.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 72.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,809.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $215,232$ on 2020-07-14